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  Guguran → more about seismoBilateral => Noise & Desaster ???
How about a new camera program ? - multiple...
( in memoriam ROVS and the international telephone tender.. )
Results of investigation at and arround G. Merapi indicate :
    Basically needed is a special combination of both, seismological as well as special visual observation and analyses : this might open further
  • knowledge (volcanological science) and
  • forecasting possibilities ( practical volcanology for endangered areas )
    • - for the time and
    • - for the seize,
      i.e. the expectable destruction(s) of an expectable eruption by lava dome collaps
      => the main focus of practical volcanology for endangered areas in general !
not only at G. Merapi, but as well at other ( "dacitic-andesitic" ) volcanoes with growing lava domes and
Merapi type eruptions
  •   → "awan panas " -/-
  •   → " nué ardentes " -/-
  •   → " glowing avalanches " -/-
  •   →  " Glutwolken  "
Such a program needs preparation, people to work it out, - organized infrastructure + cooperation (!)
It is a pity, that "guguran" presently mainly present "disturbing noise" in digitalized seismic data, - frequently cited as "local (javanese) name for rockfall" in geophysical reports, without keeping in mind, that the occurrence of "guguran" is a natural sign of alarm, preceeding a Merapi type eruption (after ZEN ) , and - these signals of guguran could even provide further & useful informations - if combined with other detectable data.

The complexity and diversity of signals, naturally offered by an active volcano should encourage more and closer cooperation, instead of enlarging the number of one-man-shows. Volcano research is not just for fun, and as well not only restricted to already well known methods.
The wide range of stll unknown, though often reported natural signals, unusual animal behaviour, f.e., was and still is hard to explain to scientists, more aquainted with precisely measurable data, like physical and chemical analyses.
Personal experiences are not mentioned here, but were made while investigating extraordinary enhanced guguran-activity.
  • → besides: the proposed combination of visual and geophysical / seismological offers another possibility, that might be useful , and beyond it, might also be attractive for touristic visits & education on volcanic activity ...
    Think about it. There are quite a few volcanoes named Merapi in Indonesia - but there´s only one "Mt. Everglow" - Gunung Merapi
    photo 1          photo 2
                        Yours, sincerely,   Eike Grätzel   www. kraton.DE
    data, photo & video, collected in Indonesia - pesently are not available, due to socalled "social" and/or "democratic" forces .... bureaucracy ( and political money talks - namely "negeri maju" ) .

    personal statement / reason for this page
    in a world presenting a rapidly growing number of inhabitants among whom official powers tend to show archean tribal behaviours (like Africa, Asia, Australia, America, and → Europe ?), relations among necessities and possibilities for benefit get more and more "out of normality". - Use condoms and birth controll without any religious sanctions !
  • this is to offer - at least - a very much reduced version of the formerly planned programs,
    medical treatment in Germany - consumes (too) much of the time needed for better preparations - could not arrange to be strong enough to follow all requests of governmental bureaucracy and insurance regulations.
  • "volcano specialists" ( ´doctorfathers´) could not be convinced of basically needed new ways of approach, and, maybe could not support necessary further steps better to make use of my personal reports; - therefore other ways have to be arranged too.
  • This page is only additional to prepare further international contacts within but also outside of any national governmental bilateral programs, existing with or among Germany and Rep. of Indonesia. - Experienced ethical standards of "organized governmental institutions" look to be too slowly, too much related to "media intelligence" and have to take into account a possible misuse by law & bureaucracy, if not to say : sometimes basically seam to be as well driven by - money.
  • This is a private statement - not to be used by anyone for his/her own purposes - All this is not mentioned to criticize socalled "bilateral international cooperation" or UNDP and other programs, - but seismology for practical volcanology is only one of the different possibilities to help and get strait and compareable data. - Germany at least, that far I may go to say it clear, too much depends on (governmental) formalism. - There is only little spaces left for any extraordinary help.
    In other words : the special natural boundary conditions you have to deal with at active volcanoes, f.e. is not sufficiently prepared / acknowlidged within standards of necessary human organizations
  • Programs and ideas, that could assist and offer help to other areas and their basic economical needs and situations, today already widely, but in future - unfortunately - possibly more and more is in need of at least undoubtable feedback from those areas, where benefits might be expected.

    Personal good will in a world still disturbed by often misused religions, in many cases run by political ethics of power & glory - is basic, but, nevertheless, believe it or not : time is money. When you´ve run of out of it, you´ll know it much better : peace.

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